Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -6.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.8 (-4.8) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -3.3 (-4.3) | 131.2 (+1.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.7 (-2.7) | 129.2 (+3.8) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2025 | APP 65 – 63 CLT |
| Dec 3, 2022 | CLT 71 – 62 APP |
| Dec 11, 2020 | APP 61 – 57 CLT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#270) | -0.7 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#165) | 1.76 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#170) | 2.60 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#142) | 0.677 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 39.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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