Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +105 PITT -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -1.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.1 (+9.9) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.0 (+11.0) | 141.2 (+2.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.6 (+10.6) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.8 (+11.8) | 139.7 (+4.3) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-5 | 8-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#108) | 6.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#71) | 1.05 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#36) | 1.57 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#146) | 0.612 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 47.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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