Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | AF +120 SIUE -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +14 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -5.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIUE -5.7 (+19.7) | 131.3 (+8.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIUE -2.4 (+16.4) | 127.2 (+12.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIUE -3.1 (+17.1) | 128.2 (+11.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIUE -4.3 (+18.3) | 129.4 (+10.6) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 12-8 |
| Home | 3-15 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#338) | 0.6 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#273) | 0.83 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#258) | 0.75 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#237) | 0.561 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 25.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.