Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -4000 ELON +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +27 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -20.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -15.4 (+11.6) | 161.5 (+9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -18.0 (+9.0) | 159.1 (+11.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -19.9 (+7.1) | 158.1 (+12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -19.4 (+7.6) | 160.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#32) | -1.8 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#110) | 0.95 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#110) | 1.23 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#148) | 0.491 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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