Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -3000 GASO +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +26 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -20.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -19.4 (+6.6) | 171.5 (-1.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -17.7 (+8.3) | 163.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -20.4 (+5.6) | 162.7 (+7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -21.9 (+4.1) | 167.3 (+2.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#11) | 1.0 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#58) | 1.13 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#33) | 0.90 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#63) | 0.500 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 55.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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