Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -360 PAC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -5.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -7.2 (+15.8) | 146.7 (-5.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -4.0 (+19.0) | 148.4 (-7.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -4.0 (+19.0) | 150.0 (-9.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -3.8 (+19.2) | 150.2 (-9.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#168) | 1.3 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#150) | 0.15 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#123) | 0.63 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#28) | 0.428 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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