Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -100000 CHST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +39 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -26.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -24.2 (+14.8) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -21.9 (+17.1) | 148.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -26.5 (+12.5) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -28.5 (+10.5) | 147.7 (-0.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#38) | -8.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#57) | -2.87 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#57) | -4.28 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#80) | 0.400 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.5% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 50.8% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 62.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 41.6% |
Game Analysis
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