Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -165 MASS +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -7.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -2.9 (+6.9) | 148.5 (-14.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -4.9 (+8.9) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -5.3 (+9.3) | 149.6 (-15.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -4.2 (+8.2) | 149.6 (-15.6) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#302) | -0.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.79 (#344) | 0.62 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.22 (#345) | 0.71 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#308) | 0.494 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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