Betting Lines
| Spread | QUC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | QUC -360 UNCG +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | QUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | QUC +7 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | QUC -19.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+41.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUC -10.8 (-3.8) | 150.9 (+44.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | QUC -12.3 (-5.3) | 147.9 (+47.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | QUC -13.8 (-6.8) | 148.2 (+46.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | QUC -14.4 (-7.4) | 148.7 (+46.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | QUC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#145) | -11.4 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#294) | -2.37 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.26 (#291) | -2.81 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#307) | 0.452 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | QUC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 11.9% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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