Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | CMU -185 NKU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +24 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -12.0 (-36.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CMU -10.6 (-34.6) | 136.6 (+19.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CMU -7.7 (-31.7) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | CMU -9.8 (-33.8) | 138.4 (+17.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -10.8 (-34.8) | 140.6 (+15.4) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#232) | -9.2 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#201) | -1.16 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#232) | -2.19 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#206) | 0.423 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 12.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 62.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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