Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -40.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +46 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -30.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -32.4 (+13.6) | 130.8 (+5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HOU -26.8 (+19.2) | 132.9 (+3.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HOU -23.8 (+22.2) | 129.8 (+6.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -30.9 (+15.1) | 127.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 4-25 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-1 | 4-9 |
| Away | 6-3 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#41) | -13.1 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#18) | -0.99 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#37) | -1.46 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#23) | 0.515 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 31.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 34.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 9.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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