Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -800 IONA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +21 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -3.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -5.9 (+15.1) | 166.9 (+4.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -2.9 (+18.1) | 159.9 (+11.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -3.0 (+18.0) | 160.4 (+10.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -3.4 (+17.6) | 166.3 (+4.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#84) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#114) | 1.71 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#113) | 2.34 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#65) | 0.547 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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