Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -650 JOES +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +14 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -18.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -11.3 (+2.7) | 155.1 (+28.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -13.2 (+0.8) | 150.8 (+33.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -15.8 (-1.8) | 152.8 (+31.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -14.6 (-0.6) | 155.7 (+28.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#106) | -7.0 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | -0.47 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#191) | -0.58 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#246) | 0.426 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 38.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.