Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | USC -2500 TROY +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +1 | 213 | Won |
| Massey | USC -17.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -16.4 (-15.4) | 164.7 (+48.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USC -13.3 (-12.3) | 167.5 (+45.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USC -14.5 (-13.5) | 162.2 (+50.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -16.8 (-15.8) | 161.0 (+52.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#12) | 4.1 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#35) | 2.40 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#35) | 2.86 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#18) | 0.649 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.27 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 36.8% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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