Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNM +300 NEB -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -0.8 (-11.2) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -1.9 (-10.1) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -1.2 (-10.8) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -0.3 (-11.7) | 141.0 (+15.0) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#101) | 12.0 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#127) | 2.47 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#121) | 3.68 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#122) | 0.625 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 2.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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