Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -215 NU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | NU -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.5 (+3.5) | 138.3 (+22.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -0.7 (+4.3) | 139.7 (+21.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -0.1 (+4.9) | 140.5 (+20.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -0.1 (+5.1) | 140.8 (+20.2) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#27) | 14.0 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#12) | 2.23 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#11) | 2.78 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#82) | 0.635 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 2.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 48.3% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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