Betting Lines
| Spread | RICE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | RICE -210 TAR +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +16 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | RICE -4.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICE -3.0 (-19.0) | 137.9 (+26.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICE -2.9 (-18.9) | 143.7 (+20.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICE -3.2 (-19.2) | 145.0 (+19.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICE -1.8 (-17.8) | 141.5 (+22.5) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICE | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#250) | -2.6 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#293) | 0.70 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#287) | 1.22 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#185) | 0.572 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICE | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 40.5% |
Game Analysis
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