Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +35 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -38.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -28.6 (+6.4) | 158.1 (+24.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -25.0 (+10.0) | 158.7 (+24.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -38.1 (-3.1) | 161.5 (+21.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -36.0 (-1.0) | 157.5 (+25.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#7) | -15.8 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#4) | -3.12 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.39 (#3) | -4.75 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#139) | 0.407 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.72 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 9.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 41.8% |
Game Analysis
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