Betting Lines
| Spread | IUIN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 181.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +130 IUIN -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +21 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | IUIN -0.3 (+21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 183.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.0 (+19.0) | 158.3 (+22.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -1.3 (+19.7) | 158.1 (+22.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.5 (+18.5) | 157.4 (+23.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -0.0 (+21.0) | 154.6 (+26.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 89.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#253) | -4.2 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#181) | -0.47 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#148) | -0.67 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#158) | 0.489 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 57.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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