And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–7 on winners spread MAE 8.8 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Akron @ Jackson State -5.8 148.7 23% 68–50 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon +5.3 132.2 71% 69–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State +2.2 150.2 62% 65–84 ✓
Oregon @ Stanford -4.3 147.3 30% 76–61 ✓
Bucknell @ Gonzaga +32.0 154.3 91% 65–86 ✓
Yale @ UTEP +2.5 143.4 59% 74–75 ✓
Cal Poly @ Omaha -0.5 153.3 52% 82–86 ✗
UC San Diego @ San Diego -12.4 139.7 14% 77–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Weber State +0.6 138.5 51% 64–62 ✗
Portland State @ Cal State Bakersfield +5.5 147.9 71% 59–58 ✗
San Diego State @ California -2.6 147.9 41% 71–50 ✓
Kennesaw State @ San José State +3.8 150.0 67% 65–89 ✓
Illinois State @ Cornell +6.7 153.7 76% 80–77 ✗
Morgan State @ Iowa State +34.6 160.4 91% 72–99 ✓
Kent State @ Alabama +16.2 145.4 87% 54–81 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma +25.7 150.0 91% 66–89 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Michigan +13.7 159.5 87% 58–89 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stonehill +12.4 136.7 88% 83–90 ✓
Bryant @ Towson +1.2 142.0 55% 65–70 ✓
Binghamton @ Army +5.4 147.6 62% 78–68 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Miami (OH) +5.2 141.8 71% 76–94 ✓
Illinois @ Missouri -1.4 151.2 44% 80–77 ✓
Iona @ Colgate +4.6 135.7 66% 79–73 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Missouri State +1.6 140.4 60% 56–68 ✓
Pennsylvania @ George Mason +20.7 133.2 90% 53–85 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wisconsin +22.8 149.4 91% 53–76 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina +11.2 140.0 83% 48–74 ✓
Mercyhurst @ West Virginia +27.4 139.7 91% 46–67 ✓
Montana State @ TCU +8.3 138.2 77% 48–82 ✓
American University @ Virginia +12.4 128.1 86% 58–63 ✓
William & Mary @ VCU +16.5 149.2 88% 70–90 ✓
Brown @ Kansas +19.8 142.8 89% 53–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice +14.0 151.5 87% 46–64 ✓
Alcorn State @ UAB +14.7 152.1 88% 74–91 ✓
McNeese @ Louisiana -8.0 136.6 22% 64–56 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma State +14.1 148.2 88% 74–86 ✓
Oregon State @ Charleston -6.5 137.6 22% 74–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas +20.9 129.8 89% 46–62 ✓
New Orleans @ LSU +29.0 150.0 91% 70–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia +26.2 144.8 91% 65–81 ✓
Grambling @ Cincinnati +23.6 133.4 90% 49–84 ✓
Southern @ USC +13.0 142.3 86% 51–82 ✓
Saint Louis @ Grand Canyon +8.1 149.6 79% 72–73 ✓
Rider @ NC State +15.3 132.9 87% 63–89 ✓
Wyoming @ Cal State Fullerton -0.9 133.4 44% 73–69 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Oakland -3.3 134.2 39% 71–72 ✗
Le Moyne @ Notre Dame +13.6 144.4 87% 62–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.