← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–14 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.7 | 131.5 | 55% | 62–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 143.8 | 78% | 67–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 133.5 | 59% | 60–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 141.6 | 76% | 79–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 147.9 | 60% | 103–100 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 147.6 | 76% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 141.8 | 37% | 69–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 139.7 | 71% | 74–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 142.2 | 59% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 141.3 | 33% | 63–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 132.5 | 72% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 148.8 | 87% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 147.4 | 85% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 152.2 | 25% | 76–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 145.6 | 83% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 148.1 | 68% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 149.3 | 87% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 146.6 | 39% | 86–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 144.3 | 58% | 80–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.7 | 151.1 | 83% | 93–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 142.0 | 67% | 73–51 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 145.3 | 73% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.0 | 141.9 | 69% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.8 | 150.2 | 90% | 70–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 136.7 | 61% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 150.8 | 86% | 71–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 144.7 | 88% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 146.2 | 43% | 83–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.2 | 154.1 | 88% | 72–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 146.0 | 86% | 54–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 146.8 | 64% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 151.9 | 86% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 136.0 | 86% | 44–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 147.4 | 73% | 86–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 149.8 | 72% | 72–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.2 | 146.0 | 89% | 53–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.2 | 147.3 | 88% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 152.3 | 69% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 141.1 | 42% | 64–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 153.0 | 70% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.7 | 147.0 | 90% | 74–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 146.3 | 82% | 63–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.5 | 133.1 | 88% | 58–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 146.1 | 75% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 138.3 | 69% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 151.9 | 71% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 152.9 | 47% | 88–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 148.3 | 45% | 73–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 150.2 | 67% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 149.5 | 53% | 75–84 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.