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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–13 on winners
spread MAE 11.7
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bucknell
@
St. John's
|
+24.3 | 161.4 | 99% | 49–97 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Tennessee
|
+19.2 | 163.3 | 96% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Cornell
|
+3.5 | 163.7 | 63% | 94–95 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
New Mexico
|
-6.7 | 146.4 | 27% | 84–72 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Vanderbilt
|
+38.9 | 175.8 | 100% | 74–109 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Princeton
|
-3.3 | 138.4 | 38% | 57–70 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+6.0 | 160.5 | 71% | 59–82 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Queens University
|
+19.7 | 154.6 | 96% | 94–101 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Central Michigan
|
+11.8 | 145.1 | 86% | 90–66 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Iowa
|
+26.2 | 155.1 | 99% | 54–93 | ✓ |
Mercyhurst
@
Miami (OH)
|
+12.2 | 134.7 | 87% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
UCF
|
-2.5 | 150.0 | 41% | 67–77 | ✗ |
Long Island University
@
Fordham
|
+0.3 | 143.5 | 51% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Miami
|
+20.5 | 173.9 | 97% | 72–99 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Ohio State
|
+14.9 | 155.0 | 91% | 58–91 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Rice
|
+5.0 | 149.5 | 68% | 90–74 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Oklahoma
|
+22.0 | 172.1 | 98% | 71–95 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
North Texas
|
+20.6 | 132.8 | 97% | 56–74 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Missouri
|
+20.7 | 173.1 | 97% | 68–102 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Texas Tech
|
+8.1 | 157.7 | 77% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Houston
|
+30.8 | 131.6 | 100% | 45–91 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Utah
|
+2.6 | 161.8 | 59% | 92–85 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Kansas State
|
+4.5 | 169.4 | 66% | 77–98 | ✓ |
Troy
@
USC
|
+18.2 | 177.4 | 95% | 106–107 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
UNLV
|
+19.3 | 164.4 | 96% | 85–99 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Hawai'i
|
+12.3 | 136.1 | 87% | 83–76 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
Yale
|
+21.4 | 162.7 | 97% | 67–73 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Tulane
|
-11.5 | 145.1 | 15% | 96–75 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Alabama State
|
-2.8 | 181.0 | 40% | 80–101 | ✗ |
Butler
@
South Carolina
|
-5.3 | 159.0 | 31% | 79–72 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Charleston
|
-7.2 | 163.4 | 26% | 65–69 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
UT Arlington
|
+1.5 | 150.6 | 56% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
Boston College
|
-3.4 | 130.5 | 38% | 59–49 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
BYU
|
+5.4 | 162.8 | 69% | 70–98 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Virginia
|
-0.5 | 147.1 | 48% | 78–83 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Akron
|
+4.3 | 177.5 | 65% | 75–96 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Florida State
|
+21.4 | 178.7 | 97% | 72–98 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Stonehill
|
+14.2 | 153.8 | 90% | 70–74 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Air Force
|
-4.8 | 128.3 | 33% | 63–77 | ✗ |
Columbia
@
Lehigh
|
+4.6 | 133.2 | 66% | 82–67 | ✗ |
Louisville
@
Cincinnati
|
-7.5 | 161.0 | 25% | 74–64 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Michigan State
|
+26.9 | 151.9 | 99% | 56–84 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+11.6 | 149.6 | 85% | 91–97 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
App State
|
+0.4 | 136.4 | 51% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Rutgers
|
+10.5 | 137.8 | 83% | 67–54 | ✗ |
West Virginia
@
Clemson
|
+5.4 | 126.0 | 69% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.