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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–13 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
42 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
@
UConn
|
+8.7 | 159.7 | 78% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
South Carolina State
|
+1.0 | 147.7 | 54% | 78–66 | ✗ |
South Alabama
@
Jacksonville State
|
+10.3 | 142.0 | 83% | 71–65 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Ohio
|
+2.3 | 171.0 | 58% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Indiana State
|
+17.2 | 132.8 | 94% | 51–60 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Temple
|
+5.8 | 158.9 | 70% | 76–81 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+10.1 | 136.4 | 82% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Stetson
|
+5.3 | 143.9 | 69% | 60–64 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
Wofford
|
+11.8 | 157.6 | 86% | 78–86 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Bowling Green
|
+22.9 | 163.7 | 98% | 82–74 | ✗ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
Samford
|
+9.2 | 174.7 | 80% | 77–62 | ✗ |
Youngstown State
@
Toledo
|
-2.0 | 163.4 | 43% | 75–92 | ✗ |
Valparaiso
@
Cleveland State
|
+7.9 | 160.3 | 76% | 90–75 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
La Salle
|
-5.7 | 147.6 | 30% | 70–55 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Virginia Tech
|
+31.2 | 155.3 | 100% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Notre Dame
|
+29.1 | 155.4 | 100% | 79–86 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Richmond
|
+13.0 | 158.5 | 88% | 54–87 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
George Washington
|
+19.5 | 156.0 | 96% | 52–89 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Duquesne
|
+13.1 | 159.8 | 88% | 78–92 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Maryland
|
+15.6 | 135.8 | 92% | 90–95 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Sam Houston
|
-1.4 | 167.6 | 45% | 70–78 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Merrimack
|
+6.1 | 129.7 | 71% | 65–72 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Marquette
|
+6.3 | 156.6 | 72% | 77–71 | ✗ |
UNC Asheville
@
Western Carolina
|
+0.6 | 144.2 | 52% | 73–80 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Utah Valley
|
+7.5 | 155.3 | 75% | 72–79 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Bradley
|
+28.2 | 153.0 | 99% | 77–87 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
Creighton
|
+23.7 | 154.0 | 98% | 60–75 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Oklahoma State
|
-0.3 | 174.9 | 49% | 95–103 | ✗ |
Kansas City
@
TCU
|
+18.0 | 153.9 | 95% | 45–81 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Belmont
|
+20.5 | 150.1 | 97% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Auburn
|
+35.2 | 160.6 | 100% | 66–112 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Illinois
|
+9.8 | 171.0 | 81% | 90–86 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Saint Mary's
|
+22.4 | 159.0 | 98% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Campbell
@
Weber State
|
+9.0 | 166.6 | 79% | 85–91 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Washington State
|
+17.2 | 166.7 | 94% | 74–98 | ✓ |
Southern Indiana
@
Incarnate Word
|
+8.6 | 141.9 | 78% | 81–87 | ✓ |
High Point
@
UIC
|
-8.7 | 153.7 | 21% | 90–80 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Marshall
|
+26.6 | 166.6 | 99% | 70–98 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Purdue
|
+12.3 | 155.3 | 87% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Lindenwood
@
Indiana
|
+33.7 | 161.1 | 100% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+11.8 | 166.7 | 86% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Stony Brook
|
+19.4 | 144.9 | 96% | 70–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.