Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -5000 UAPB +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +28 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -24.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -16.8 (+11.2) | 157.4 (+10.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -16.0 (+12.0) | 153.5 (+14.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -18.6 (+9.4) | 154.2 (+13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -17.8 (+10.2) | 152.6 (+15.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#116) | -14.2 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#11) | -1.27 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#18) | -1.75 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.759 (#4) | 0.490 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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