Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -425 W&M +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -20.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -16.2 (-24.2) | 152.9 (+3.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -18.9 (-26.9) | 150.7 (+5.3) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -21.4 (-29.4) | 151.8 (+4.2) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -22.0 (-30.0) | 153.0 (+3.0) | 89% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#35) | -2.4 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#111) | -0.26 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#109) | -0.69 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#29) | 0.482 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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