Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SCST +550 UTC -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -3.6 (-8.4) | 137.3 (+6.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.2 (-11.8) | 141.6 (+2.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCST -0.4 (-12.4) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.3 (-10.7) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-16 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -17.6 (#363) | -10.2 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#339) | -2.09 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.34 (#350) | -2.99 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#347) | 0.323 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 22.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 62.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.9% | 39.4% |
Game Analysis
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