Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -1000 RMU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -11.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (-29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -9.2 (+4.8) | 145.2 (-9.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -10.2 (+3.8) | 150.5 (-14.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -12.0 (+2.0) | 150.8 (-14.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -14.2 (-0.2) | 149.0 (-13.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#141) | -2.4 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#46) | 1.46 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#65) | 1.79 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#34) | 0.667 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 27.9% |
| ORB% | 44.6% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 54.5% |
Game Analysis
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