Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -230 FGCU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -9.3 (-24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.2 (-36.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -7.0 (-22.0) | 157.1 (-18.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -7.2 (-22.2) | 157.4 (-18.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.3 (-23.3) | 157.7 (-18.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.4 (-22.4) | 157.8 (-18.8) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#234) | -6.3 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#140) | -1.68 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#179) | -1.85 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#216) | 0.395 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 17.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 2.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 10.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 12.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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