Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -1600 L-MD +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +14 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -13.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -11.6 (+2.4) | 146.5 (+23.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -10.3 (+3.7) | 146.5 (+23.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -10.7 (+3.3) | 147.9 (+22.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -9.7 (+4.3) | 147.4 (+22.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#124) | -3.1 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#176) | -2.16 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#186) | -3.32 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#190) | 0.343 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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