Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VT -50000 BRY +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VT -30.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -21.0 (-4.0) | 152.4 (-13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -23.3 (-6.3) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -29.4 (-12.4) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -29.8 (-12.8) | 152.8 (-13.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#39) | -12.8 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#33) | -1.64 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#26) | -2.54 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.689 (#16) | 0.363 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 34.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.39 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 10.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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