Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | WOF -750 UNF +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -13.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WOF -12.4 (-4.4) | 146.6 (+17.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -10.1 (-2.1) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -11.9 (-3.9) | 149.4 (+14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -12.1 (-4.1) | 148.0 (+16.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 89.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#255) | -11.8 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#129) | -0.62 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#135) | -0.90 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#112) | 0.536 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 37.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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