Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MD -5000 MSM +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +5 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | MD -16.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -16.2 (-11.2) | 137.2 (+47.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -12.3 (-7.3) | 136.0 (+49.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -14.3 (-9.3) | 134.6 (+50.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -14.7 (-9.7) | 136.0 (+49.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | MD 86 – 52 MSM |
| Nov 8, 2023 | MD 68 – 53 MSM |
| Nov 29, 2020 | MD 79 – 61 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#128) | -6.7 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#101) | -1.65 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#83) | -2.95 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#156) | 0.455 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 44.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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