Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 177.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -175 USF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +8 | 198 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -0.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.2 (+23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -2.8 (+5.2) | 159.8 (+38.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -3.6 (+4.4) | 156.8 (+41.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -4.3 (+3.7) | 156.7 (+41.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -3.9 (+4.1) | 160.5 (+37.5) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#57) | 15.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#91) | 1.31 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#88) | 2.24 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#152) | 0.549 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 44.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 44.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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