Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -7500 ARST +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +13 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -20.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -18.2 (-5.2) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -20.4 (-7.4) | 148.5 (+8.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -19.1 (-6.1) | 145.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#29) | -1.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#82) | 1.52 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#100) | 1.63 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#84) | 0.529 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 44.8% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 42.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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