Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -140 TNTC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | UPST -10.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+35.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -4.4 (-8.4) | 132.7 (+39.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -6.4 (-10.4) | 135.0 (+37.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -8.0 (-12.0) | 133.9 (+38.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -7.7 (-11.7) | 133.2 (+38.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#160) | -2.9 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#97) | -2.19 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#137) | -2.69 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#48) | 0.366 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.49 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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