Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -30.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +46 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -33.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -28.4 (+17.6) | 154.9 (+23.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -24.8 (+21.2) | 150.5 (+27.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -33.8 (+12.2) | 152.4 (+25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -33.0 (+13.0) | 153.7 (+24.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#45) | -16.8 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#107) | -1.25 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#92) | -2.05 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#132) | 0.418 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 32.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 46.0 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 18.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 39.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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