Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -225 ARIZ +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.9 (-9.9) | 148.9 (-10.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -8.2 (-12.2) | 149.0 (-11.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.0 (-13.0) | 150.0 (-12.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.5 (-12.5) | 153.2 (-15.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 36-3 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 11-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#16) | 13.2 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#8) | 3.30 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#16) | 5.05 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.700 (#12) | 0.705 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.8% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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