Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UVU -145 UCI +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -6.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -3.4 (+3.6) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -3.6 (+3.4) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -4.3 (+2.7) | 145.9 (+5.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -4.3 (+2.7) | 151.5 (-0.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#215) | -2.2 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#269) | -0.55 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#235) | -0.79 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#211) | 0.466 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVU | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.8% | 40.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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