Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -290 BCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -2.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -4.3 (-7.3) | 157.3 (-8.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | OHIO -3.9 (-6.9) | 158.7 (-9.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | OHIO -4.0 (-7.0) | 157.4 (-8.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -4.3 (-7.3) | 157.2 (-8.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#273) | -2.0 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#235) | -1.08 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#239) | -1.47 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#140) | 0.444 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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