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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–20 on winners spread MAE 10.6 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Florida State +21.0 142.8 97% 57–91 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +9.1 144.5 80% 78–88 ✓
VMI @ Loyola Maryland +7.8 144.6 76% 67–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -6.7 148.0 27% 78–76 ✓
Stanford @ Grand Canyon -10.4 156.4 17% 71–78 ✗
Wagner @ Georgetown +10.7 117.7 83% 41–66 ✓
Manhattan @ Virginia +10.0 125.6 82% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +26.7 136.4 99% 54–83 ✓
Boise State @ Boston College -11.3 151.4 15% 61–63 ✗
North Dakota State @ Samford +15.7 166.9 92% 98–103 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +6.8 149.2 73% 85–80 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Alabama +18.4 125.6 95% 64–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Iowa +28.3 168.7 99% 77–110 ✓
Long Beach State @ UTEP +5.4 136.7 69% 44–70 ✓
Iowa State @ Dayton -3.0 146.3 39% 89–84 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Belmont +10.6 151.1 83% 77–63 ✗
Kansas @ Duke +14.2 143.0 90% 75–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine +9.5 140.3 81% 72–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Montana State +10.6 141.8 83% 59–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Utah +43.5 143.4 100% 48–94 ✓
California Baptist @ SMU +11.6 163.2 85% 77–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Arizona +0.4 135.9 52% 72–68 ✗
Grambling @ Cal Poly +9.9 147.1 82% 79–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ UC Santa Barbara +10.3 158.1 83% 51–67 ✓
Southern Utah @ UCLA +18.7 142.0 96% 43–88 ✓
Notre Dame @ Rutgers -4.0 160.2 36% 84–85 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ San José State -13.7 130.2 11% 64–69 ✗
Auburn @ North Carolina -4.6 175.1 34% 85–72 ✓
Furman @ Seattle U -0.6 143.5 48% 61–56 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington State +9.9 155.5 82% 73–84 ✓
Louisville @ Indiana +2.1 145.9 58% 89–61 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +2.1 146.5 58% 69–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Detroit Mercy -19.9 143.6 4% 81–75 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +6.3 160.6 72% 69–92 ✓
SE Louisiana @ North Dakota -5.1 137.1 32% 76–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Charleston +9.7 142.1 81% 64–79 ✓
UTSA @ Merrimack -2.1 135.1 42% 76–74 ✓
New Orleans @ Baylor +31.3 162.7 100% 60–91 ✓
Bryant @ Chattanooga +1.6 157.9 56% 76–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +12.9 147.4 88% 54–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Youngstown State +9.9 138.6 82% 73–62 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Charlotte +6.1 145.8 71% 75–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ Tennessee Tech -0.6 140.9 48% 75–90 ✗
Gonzaga @ West Virginia -17.9 149.8 5% 78–86 ✗
Colorado @ Iowa State +4.2 142.6 65% 71–99 ✓
Tulsa @ Georgia State +2.5 153.0 59% 71–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Bethune-Cookman -7.8 142.4 24% 79–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee +31.6 135.5 100% 35–78 ✓
NJIT @ Morehead State +7.5 126.5 75% 78–69 ✗
West Georgia @ North Dakota State +4.7 140.3 67% 61–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ App State -10.3 150.9 17% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Valparaiso +13.2 137.5 89% 82–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ Air Force +2.2 126.0 58% 63–61 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon +1.6 140.6 56% 68–78 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +4.1 155.9 64% 62–54 ✗
Canisius @ Robert Morris +22.4 143.2 98% 64–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Maryland +25.9 146.7 99% 67–91 ✓
Memphis @ Auburn +6.8 162.5 73% 76–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Austin Peay +6.2 149.1 71% 68–58 ✗
Providence @ Oklahoma +3.3 128.1 62% 77–79 ✓
Ball State @ Richmond +0.9 135.0 53% 60–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Virginia Tech -6.7 136.0 27% 70–60 ✓
Tulane @ Belmont +2.7 159.1 60% 66–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Western Illinois -7.2 138.9 26% 86–75 ✓
Creighton @ Texas A&M +7.7 140.3 76% 73–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +31.1 151.7 100% 61–81 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +16.1 157.8 93% 79–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.