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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–9 on winners spread MAE 9.7 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama State @ Cincinnati +24.6 148.0 99% 59–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Marshall +5.1 136.9 68% 53–82 ✓
Colgate @ UNC Wilmington +12.6 142.3 87% 72–59 ✗
Milwaukee @ UCF +11.9 156.9 86% 76–84 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +7.4 173.5 75% 72–82 ✓
Rider @ Villanova +11.3 142.8 85% 48–72 ✓
UTEP @ UNC Greensboro +0.9 134.5 53% 64–58 ✗
Utah Valley @ Samford +4.6 179.6 66% 76–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Tech +12.1 149.2 87% 67–91 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Little Rock +21.2 141.3 97% 59–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Saint Louis +7.4 165.4 75% 90–93 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Houston Christian -0.6 134.2 48% 74–71 ✓
Arizona @ Davidson -3.0 161.3 39% 104–71 ✓
Xavier @ Michigan +2.2 151.6 58% 53–78 ✓
Wyoming @ Loyola Marymount +1.5 130.7 55% 70–73 ✓
Stonehill @ Marquette +28.5 137.9 100% 59–94 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Montana -8.5 155.9 22% 75–83 ✗
Michigan State @ North Carolina +8.1 154.0 77% 94–91 ✗
SMU @ Washington State -0.7 169.7 47% 77–60 ✓
Alabama @ Rutgers -15.9 174.4 7% 95–90 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Pacific +19.4 158.0 96% 71–83 ✓
San José State @ Long Beach State -7.1 127.0 26% 82–66 ✓
Mercyhurst @ California +20.6 140.4 97% 55–81 ✓
UConn @ Dayton -6.9 154.7 26% 67–85 ✗
California Baptist @ Fresno State -0.6 152.2 48% 86–81 ✓
Houston @ Notre Dame -14.5 143.6 9% 65–54 ✓
West Virginia @ Louisville +0.8 146.0 53% 70–79 ✓
Minnesota @ Wichita State +6.2 129.3 71% 66–68 ✓
UT Arlington @ Rhode Island +10.9 165.5 84% 78–83 ✓
Gonzaga @ Indiana -17.0 156.2 6% 89–73 ✓
Florida @ Wake Forest -17.1 145.1 6% 75–58 ✓
NC State @ Purdue +5.3 140.9 69% 61–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ North Dakota State -6.5 156.3 28% 63–83 ✗
Illinois @ Arkansas -5.9 143.2 30% 90–77 ✓
Santa Clara @ TCU +0.8 144.1 53% 69–52 ✗
Arizona @ Oklahoma -0.8 153.8 47% 77–82 ✗
BYU @ Ole Miss -4.7 149.4 33% 85–96 ✗
Utah State @ St. Bonaventure -5.5 156.8 31% 72–67 ✓
Washington @ Colorado State -1.5 142.6 45% 73–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.