← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–15 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UCF
@
South Florida
|
-1.0 | 133.5 | 46% | 61–68 | ✗ |
Wyoming
@
Fresno State
|
-0.8 | 156.9 | 47% | 78–74 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-1.8 | 148.4 | 44% | 80–73 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Wofford
|
+5.0 | 147.5 | 67% | 84–94 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Long Beach State
|
-8.7 | 153.0 | 21% | 89–76 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana
|
+16.9 | 124.0 | 94% | 64–62 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+8.1 | 133.5 | 77% | 49–57 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Georgetown
|
-3.3 | 147.8 | 38% | 64–60 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Gonzaga
|
+18.7 | 165.4 | 96% | 62–85 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Nebraska
|
+2.9 | 150.5 | 61% | 84–77 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
UCLA
|
-6.3 | 146.5 | 28% | 62–65 | ✗ |
Northwestern State
@
Houston Christian
|
-0.7 | 159.2 | 47% | 93–99 | ✗ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+11.9 | 143.3 | 86% | 61–65 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Oregon
|
+5.7 | 138.4 | 70% | 56–73 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
New Mexico
|
-3.4 | 133.8 | 38% | 84–74 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Washington State
|
-9.2 | 129.5 | 20% | 86–82 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Northeastern
|
+9.9 | 127.3 | 82% | 58–66 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
UMass Lowell
|
-1.5 | 144.1 | 44% | 60–74 | ✗ |
New Hampshire
@
Maine
|
+0.1 | 125.0 | 50% | 62–58 | ✗ |
Duquesne
@
George Washington
|
-6.2 | 148.5 | 29% | 73–75 | ✗ |
Binghamton
@
Hartford
|
+10.3 | 131.3 | 83% | 74–77 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Hofstra
|
+12.7 | 134.9 | 88% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Delaware
|
+4.1 | 131.2 | 65% | 66–59 | ✗ |
Army
@
Colgate
|
+21.9 | 147.4 | 98% | 75–73 | ✗ |
North Carolina A&T
@
South Carolina State
|
-8.1 | 152.1 | 23% | 73–66 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Missouri State
|
+10.7 | 146.1 | 84% | 66–70 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Evansville
|
-1.1 | 137.2 | 46% | 64–70 | ✗ |
Lehigh
@
Lafayette
|
+5.8 | 166.6 | 70% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Rhode Island
|
+14.3 | 160.0 | 90% | 77–85 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Western Illinois
|
-5.4 | 131.0 | 31% | 78–67 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
North Dakota
|
+3.2 | 114.5 | 61% | 77–53 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Omaha
|
-8.1 | 153.6 | 23% | 86–75 | ✓ |
Denver
@
South Dakota
|
+20.5 | 145.5 | 97% | 57–79 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Vermont
|
+5.3 | 133.6 | 68% | 66–74 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Minnesota
|
+0.1 | 156.0 | 51% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
James Madison
|
+0.5 | 149.4 | 52% | 80–73 | ✗ |
Southern Illinois
@
Drake
|
+18.0 | 152.7 | 95% | 55–73 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Georgia Tech
|
-3.5 | 154.1 | 37% | 54–70 | ✗ |
Navy
@
Bucknell
|
+0.5 | 145.2 | 52% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.