Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | NEB +320 MSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -0.4 (-6.6) | 147.4 (+13.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -0.4 (-7.4) | 147.8 (+13.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -0.1 (-7.1) | 152.0 (+9.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -0.8 (-7.8) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | NEB 58 – 56 MSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MSU 89 – 52 NEB |
| Dec 10, 2023 | NEB 77 – 70 MSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | MSU 80 – 67 NEB |
| Jan 4, 2023 | MSU 74 – 56 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-20 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 3-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | 1.9 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#227) | 1.06 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#190) | 1.98 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#211) | 0.505 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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