Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -180 INST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -10.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -10.4 (-6.4) | 145.8 (-9.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.4 (-4.4) | 145.4 (-9.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -10.1 (-6.1) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -10.1 (-6.1) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#75) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#134) | -0.33 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#143) | -0.26 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#159) | 0.489 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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