Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | UVM -800 UALB +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -5.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -4.5 (+3.5) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -4.4 (+3.6) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -4.4 (+3.6) | 137.8 (+2.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -4.0 (+4.0) | 135.2 (+4.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-5 | 7-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Away | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#179) | -3.1 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#265) | -1.26 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#207) | -1.77 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#327) | 0.426 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 80.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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