Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | URI -900 JOES +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | URI -14.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -13.1 (-5.1) | 152.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -9.5 (-1.5) | 155.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -12.7 (-4.7) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -12.5 (-4.5) | 151.9 (+10.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | JOES 61 – 55 URI |
| Mar 6, 2025 | JOES 91 – 74 URI |
| Jan 4, 2024 | URI 78 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 2, 2023 | JOES 64 – 50 URI |
| Mar 5, 2022 | JOES 70 – 60 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 3-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#79) | -4.2 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#104) | -1.64 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#84) | -2.11 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#85) | 0.499 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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