He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Big Sky Conference · Dahlberg Arena · January 3, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread MONT -6.0 Away covered
O/U 132.5 Under
Money MONT -260 / UNCO +220
Model Predictions
Spread Total MONT win
Actual UNCO +2 126 Lost
Massey MONT -17.2 (-19.2) — —
Massey Totals — 124.0 (+2.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 90% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MONT -12.7 (-14.7) 130.9 (-4.9) 85% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MONT -12.7 (-14.7) 128.3 (-2.3) 79% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MONT -10.7 (-12.7) 129.1 (-3.1) 76% ✗
Baseline ML MONT -11.7 (-13.7) 128.7 (-2.7) 75% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 9, 2026 MONT 95 – 89 UNCO
Mar 3, 2026 UNCO 85 – 57 MONT
Jan 3, 2026 MONT 88 – 79 UNCO
Mar 13, 2025 MONT 91 – 83 UNCO
Feb 7, 2025 MONT 86 – 78 UNCO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MONT UNCO
Overall 15-13 11-11
Conference 7-9 6-8
Home 8-4 6-5
Away 5-8 4-5
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.2 68.0
Avg Pts Against 69.3 70.5
Massey 4.8 (#98) -9.0 (#293)
Bradley-Terry -0.51 (#211) -2.10 (#302)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.02 (#175) -3.90 (#318)
RPI 0.526 (#130) 0.392 (#290)
Shooting & Four Factors MONT UNCO
FG% 41.3% 40.2%
3PT% 36.5% 33.7%
REB / G 31.0 28.8
OREB / G 6.8 7.2
AST / TO 0.76 0.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.2% 46.2%
TOV% 21.3% 23.5%
ORB% 21.0% 22.0%
FT Rate 27.9% 28.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.3% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 19.7%
DRB% 65.0% 71.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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