Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | GTWN +170 MARQ -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.4 (-2.6) | 149.8 (-25.8) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -2.6 (-1.4) | 144.3 (-20.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.9 (-2.1) | 146.4 (-22.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.5 (-2.5) | 150.3 (-26.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MARQ 76 – 60 GTWN |
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MARQ 76 – 61 GTWN |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 57 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#143) | 8.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#140) | 1.40 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#128) | 2.15 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#146) | 0.554 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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