Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +160 NWST -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +6 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | NWST -0.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -1.6 (+4.4) | 152.5 (+39.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.2 (+4.8) | 153.5 (+38.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -1.1 (+4.9) | 157.7 (+34.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -1.9 (+4.1) | 160.9 (+31.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-19 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#323) | -9.8 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#321) | -3.86 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.37 (#322) | -6.01 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#244) | 0.439 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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