Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | SDAK -900 DEN +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -20.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -15.1 (+6.9) | 145.5 (-9.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -14.4 (+7.6) | 144.7 (-8.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -16.5 (+5.5) | 146.4 (-10.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -16.6 (+5.4) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 1-13 |
| Home | 7-2 | 2-10 |
| Away | 5-4 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#161) | -16.7 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#268) | -4.14 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#238) | -6.21 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#292) | 0.312 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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